Roth IRA Trajectory Calculator
Compare bull, base, and bear market scenarios side by side to see the realistic range of paths your Roth IRA balance could follow.
Scenario Inputs
Set your base case and scenarios
Calculating...
How Scenario Projections Work
Instead of a single forecast, the calculator runs your savings plan three times, once for each return you enter. Everything else, including your balance and contributions, stays the same.
The base case appears as the headline, with the bull and bear results beside it. The range spread shows how much the final balance depends on market returns.
Enter your plan
Starting balance, annual contribution, and years to project apply to every scenario.
Set three returns
Pick an optimistic, a middle, and a cautious average annual return.
Compare the range
Plan around the base or bear case so a strong market becomes a bonus.
What Is the Formula?
Each scenario uses the same year by year growth formula with its own return. Contributions are capped at the IRS limit for each year of the projection.
- B0, Starting balance
- Your current Roth IRA value.
- C : Annual contribution
- Your planned yearly deposit.
- rs, Scenario return
- Bull, base, or bear average annual return.
- Capt, Yearly limit
- The projection assumes you start at age 30, so catch up applies from year 21.
Balance Range by Scenario and Time Horizon
This chart starts from $20,000 with $7,000 a year. Notice how the gap between scenarios widens dramatically with time.
| Years | Bear (5%) | Base (8%) | Bull (12%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | $125,025 | $152,697 | $199,699 |
| 20 | $296,101 | $439,180 | $757,817 |
| 30 | $574,764 | $1,057,674 | $2,491,247 |
| 40 | $1,028,678 | $2,392,958 | $7,875,016 |
Example: Three Paths From $20,000
The default inputs show why a single projection can be misleading over a 30 year horizon.
- 1Bear case at 5%: the plan grows to $574,764.
- 2Base case at 8%: the plan grows to $1,057,674.
- 3Bull case at 12%: the plan grows to $2,491,247.
FAQs
Many planners use about 10 to 12% for bull, 7 to 8% for base, and 4 to 5% for bear, based on long run market history.
Small differences in annual return compound over decades, so a few percentage points can multiply the final balance.
No, each scenario uses one steady average return, so it shows a range of outcomes rather than a market path.
The tool assumes you start at age 30, capping deposits at $7,000 for 20 years and $8,000 after that.
Base your plan on the bear or base case so a strong market becomes a bonus rather than a requirement.
The base case is the middle estimate, while the bull and bear cards show the optimistic and cautious ends of the range.
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